Ukraine: On the border between old and new in uncertain times

This chapter provides an overview of the demographic situation in Ukraine, including explanations for the decline to very low fertility and changes in family policy. Drawing on official statistics, survey data, and focus group interviews, the analysis shows that the country’s decline to lowest-low fertility is primarily due to the postponement of or the reduction in second births, as opposed to the postponement of first births. The chapter includes a discussion on the link between low fertility and changing marriage patterns, contraceptive prevalence, and abortion. The author then reviews the evidence for the leading explanations of fertility decline in Ukraine, including economic uncertainty, social anomie, the Second Demographic Transition, and unequal gender relations. In addition, the author proposes unexplored factors that may lead to fertility limitation, such as the increasing difficulty of combining work and childrearing, insufficient housing, changes in intergenerational support, and the deterioration of health lifestyles and marital relations. 1 University of Michigan and University of Wisconsin. E-mail: [email protected] Perelli-Harris: Ukraine: On the border between old and new in uncertain times 1146 http://www.demographic-research.org